Central Coast/Wellington (A-Leauge)

Central Coast/Wellington - DRAW - 3.25

These 2 sides are the draw specialists, with Wellington only winning one game away from home this year, but having plenty of draws on the road. Central Coast are desperate for 3 points, but the NZers are a good team, and should respond to anything thrown at them.

New South Wales (Cricket)

New South Wales - WIN - 1.90

Can't believe this game is even money at the moment. NSW are literally the world's best 20/20 team, and although a few of their stars aren't playing that played in the 20/20 champions league, they are still a force to be reckoned with.

I usually don't like backing teams below 2.00, but these odds seem too good.

NFL Bets of the Week.

Multi 1.

1. Miami; -1.5 points - 1.91

2. New York Giants/Carolina - Total points over 42.5 - 1.91

3.65.

Multi 2.

1. Philadelphia; -7.0

2. Giants/Panthers - over 42.5

3. San Fransisco/Detroit - over 41.0

4. Dallas; -7.0

5. Chicago; +7.0

26.50

The first multi is my 2 best remaining bets of the week together, with Miami a good chance to blow Houston away, and both the Giants and Panthers have put up big points lately.

The Second Multi is my Australian TV multi, consisting of the 5 covered games by Foxtel and ONE HD. I love the way Phillie are playing, and can see them blowing away Denver, San Fran and Detroit should be high scoring, as both sides "air it out", while Dallas should easily account for the woeful Skins. The last game is a bit of a "feeling" bet, as Favre has a bad record away from home in cold weather, while the Bears have their season on the line. 

If you are looking for the "value bet" of the week, or at least the remaining games, I'll be taking a small bite at Chicago for a straight win at the very juicy odds of 3.70. 

A-Leauge Multi (Soccer)

1. Gold Coast - WIN

2. Perth - WIN

3. Sydney - WIN

4. Melbourne - WIN

5. Central Coast vs Wellington - DRAW

51.00, x 1 unit.

The weekly attempt to crack an A-League multi sees 4 wins and a draw between the draw specialists. At 51.00, a nice return if it gets up, and as I've said before, only need one of these this year/season and it will place the account in front.

Orlando Magic (NBA)

Orlando Magic - WIN - 1-10 points - 2.70

Great early matchup tomorrow morning our time, between the Magic and the Celtics in Orlando. Paul Pierce is out for the Celtics, but it will still be close. Orlando to win a close one, as Boston's D is still very good.

San Diego Chargers (NFL).

San Diego Chargers - WIN - 2.35

These odds seem too good to be true. The Chargers travel to Tennessee to play the in form Titans, but the Chargers are on fire, having won their last 9 games. It will be a high scoring game, and I just don't know whether the Titans can match the Chargers for scoring ability. Christmas day match in the States, so Boxing Day on TV in Australia.

NFL TV Multi.

1. Green Bay - WIN

2. New York Jets; - 7.0

3. San Diego; - 7.0

4. Minnesota; - 8.5

5. New York Giants - WIN

24.50 per unit.


My NFL TV multi for this week wasn't easy, with 3 of the games having the favourites too short for a straight out win bet, so I took the points. Can see one of those 3 points game's becoming a "push", but that's fine, as long as the multi still gets up.

NFL Bets of the Week.

Green Bay Packers - WIN - 2.15

Seattle Seahawks; -6.5 - 1.91

Love the Packers this week, against the struggling Steelers, who just don't seem to be able to stop any team that throws more then they run.

The Seahawks line is just stupid, at home against the terrible Tampa Bay, the line should be 10+.

Will place my TV Multi up later, which will consist of all the 5 games on Australian TV this Monday and Tuesday.

Melbourne Victory (Soccer - A-League)

Melbourne Victory - WIN - 2.10

I know there are injury concerns over Hernandez and Ward, but Colosimo missing for Sydney means their defense is going to be fairly weak. Melbourne are in great form too, a 3-0 win over CC last week, and Sydney struggled to dispose of Wellington, although some might say that was a great win. Melbourne to win easily for me, thus the 2.10 is good value.

A-Leauge Multis (Soccer)

Multi 1.

1. Adelaide WIN

2. Brisbane WIN (Draw no bet)

3. Melbourne - WIN

4. Newcastle - WIN

5. Gold Coast - WIN

39.00 per unit.

Multi 2.

1. Adelaide WIN (Draw no bet)

2. Draw - Brisbane vs C.Coast

3. Draw - Melbourne vs Syd.

4. Newcastle - WIN

5. Gold Coast - WIN

64.00 per unit.

Tough to land these A-League Multis, but 1 will pay off the whole season, so I'm having a crack at 2 this week.
The last 2 games seem like good bets for the win, so it's just a matter of getting past Saturday night.
Adelaide found some form last week, and so did Brisbane, so I'm going to risk them straight out and with a draw no bet win in the 2 multis. The Melbourne/Sydney blockbuster is a tough one, Melbourne have hit form again, but Hernandez might not play, bringing Sydney back into it.
Would love to get to the Sunday games alive in one multi, would feel fairly confident then.

Indianapolis Colts (NFL)

Indianapolis Colts; -2.5 and game total under 42.5 - 3.30

Going for the Colts to cover the points, in a low scoring game in wet and windy conditions in Jacksonville. Their have been rumours the Colts may rest some starters late in the game, but with heavy rain and strong wind predicted, they may well run up the score first, and their D will hold on late, like it did against the Broncos last week.

Not a lot of value in any markets today, so the line/total double seemed the best value.

Wow, rain didn't come, wind was low, and the score went over early in the 3rd, Colts won, but couldn't get over 2.00 on the points, so that didn't seem value.

Tottenham vs Manchester City (EPL)

Tottenham vs Manchester City - DRAW - 3.30

The other 3 EPL games tomorrow morning seem clear cut, so this game seems to offer the best value. Machester City have had a habit of high scoring draws, including a run of 5 draws in a row recently.
Tottenham are the favourites here, but offer little value at about 2.00 in a game between two of the "next level" sides in the EPL.
Will also add the draw to a multi with win bets on the other 3 EPL games.

3-0 Tottenham. Man City just didn't turn up, even their manager was surprised by the large defeat.

New York Giants vs Washington Redskins (NFL)

New York; - 3.0; ...2.05

Edit: You can now get NY at -2.5, although at the lesser price of 1.87, that bet is still very good value in my mind.

My early tip for next weeks NFL round is a  very early one, it's for next Monday nights matchup.
The Giants need to win this game to likely tie the Cowboys for the last NFC wild card, and with only 3 games left, can not afford to let this one slip.
The Giants and Skins have both been "ok" recently, but the Skins seem to only get close to good teams, so the low points on offer are a bonus at this time.
My educated guess would be a 7-10 point NY win, so 3 points seems very light on.

PROFIT/LOSS STATEMENT

Basically after each week, I will try and prepare a little report on the profits and/or losses of the bets I have placed up during the week.

My basic betting system is to place 1 unit on an outsider (3.00 or more) and 2 units on a head to head value bet (3.00 or less).

Following that line of betting, and after calculating up all the results, I achieved;

A loss of 4.50 units for the week, saved mainly by Nick O'Hern scraping into 5th spot in the oz PGA, and also good NFL wins by the Eagles and Chargers.

Over the coming weeks, I will be placing large value, high return, but low percentage multi's also that will hopefully raise the level of this site's returns.

Not a good first week, but not a "shocker" either.

Best of luck to all.

Australia vs West Indies (Cricket)

Ricky Ponting - Man of the Match - 9.00

Dwayne Bravo - WI high bat, 1st innings - 8.50

A couple of nice value bets here, at very juicy odds, just to make the 3rd and final test more interesting. Ponting has been in good form without breaking out, and is set for a big score.
Bravo is a good value bet, with Chanderpaul and the young opener Barath in doubt and unlikely to play.

NFL (Week 14)

San Diego - WIN - 2.60
Carolina - WIN - 6.00

San Diego face the Cowboys at home, but the Cowboys (or Cowgirls as they are known after November) lost to a pretty ordinary Giants outfit last week, while the Chargers run and pass game is still going strong.

Warning: Carolina bet is a long shot, hoping that Tom Brady doesnt play, if he pulls out late, the odds will shorten dramatically.

Simple Multi also;

1. Green Bay, -4.0 
2. Jacksonville, -2.5
3. Oakland - WIN
4. Buffalo vs KCity - Over 37.5 total

= 15.00 per unit.

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SAN DIEGO WIN helped on this one, and they were one of, if not the bet of the NFL week.
CAROLINA LOSS, basically because Brady played, but they did squeak inside the point spread.

English Premier League (Saturday)

Stoke - WIN - 2.10

Birmingham City - WIN - 2.10

Stoke are one of the better home teams in the EPL, only losing to Chelsea and Man u at home, as Wigan are terrible on the road, losing 5 of their last 6 away.

Birmingham City  are one of the in form teams of the EPL, unbeaten in Six facing the struggling West Ham at home. Kevin Phillips seems almost certain to return for BC too.

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LOSS
LOSS


Bad night for EPL betting, with plenty of upsets.

A-League Multi.

Nth Queensland - WIN

Wellington/Sydney - DRAW

Central Coast - WIN (Draw no Bet)

Brisbane - WIN

Newcastle - WIN

65.00 return per unit.

Ok, going for a fairly ridiculous A-League multi, involving all 5 games, at a very nice price of close to 65.00 per unit placed.

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LOSS - Was a longshot, but wasn't even close, a few late upsets meant even if the 1st 2-3 legs got up, wouldnt have mattered. Will post one of these each Friday, worth a small shot each week.

Pakistan vs New Zealand (Test Cricket)

Pakistan - WIN - 2.70

The 3rd and final test of what has been a surprisingly close test series, with both sides winning a test each, as the last test heads to Napier for a Friday morning start.

The only thing stopping a result here is weather, as both of the first tests finished well within the 5 days.

I have gone for Pakistan, as I see their bowling attack as being more potent then the Kiwis, but also their batting is more consistent and they won't want to head to Australia on the back of a test series loss.

I am confident of this bet, but it is Pakistan, so anything could happen.

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LOSS - Game ended in a draw, although rain effected the chances of NZ winning, as Pakistan never looked likely.

Dunhill Championship (Golf)

Thomas Bjron - Each Way top 5 - 81.00

Couldn't resist this, Bjorn at 81.00 in a fairly week European tour event field.
A few units each way top 5 and I'll follow him closely.

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LOSS - Didn't even make the cut, dropped form late in the year, and didn't recover.

Colorado Avalanche (NHL)

Colorado Avalanche - WIN - 1.80


Looking at the NHL games today, I saw this one was televised on Fox Sports, and see the Avalanche as a very good bet.

The Wild have beaten them a few times this year, but this is back on home ice for the Avalanche, and they are now leading their division, I can't see them dropping this one.
Should be a high scoring game, might even have a go at the -1.5 handicap for the Avalanche, I can see them winning by 2 goals here. 

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LOSS - 1-0, Minnesota, terrible game to watch, both sides seemed tired. 

Champions League - Liverpool and Barcelona

Liverpool - WIN - 2.10
Barcelona - WIN - 1.65


Liverpool at home are always a good bet, and on the + side of 2.00, just seem too tempting. It is a dead rubber against Fiorentina though, although the Italians have a rash of injuries and Liverpool needs to gain confidence ahead of a huge clash with Arsenal on the weekend.

Barcelona, while having to travel to Russia to fave Dynamo Kiev, still need to win to go trough, and I just don't think the great Spanish side will let this one slip, in a similar vein to Real Madrids' performance yesterday.

The price is a little short for Barca, so I won't be going deep on them, but at least this gives me some interest for tomorrows games.

Also placing these two in a multi with the San Antonio NBA bet mentioned here, and also with Internazionale to win their Champions League game also. Nice odds of around 7.00 per unit.

Good luck to all.

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LOSS - Liverpool downed 2-1, never looked like winning really.
WIN - Saved late from a free kick.

San Antonio Spur vs Sacremento Kings (NBA)

Game Total Under 204.0 points - 1.91

The last 2 Spurs games have finished with the total at 205, although I believe with both Sacremento's inability to score against Good D and the Spurs wanting to bounce back after 3 losses, that the Spurs will shut this game down early and come in under 200 points.

It's the ESPN TV game here in OZ, so that adds a little extra reason to watch.

Good luck to all.

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LOSS - Went well over, not even close.

Philideplhia Eagles (NFL)

Philidephia Eagles - WIN - 2.00

This game isn't until Sunday Night US time, but I believe the odds on offer are too good to resist, and will only be available for a limited time, as the Eagles are on a roll and face the less then consistent Giants in NY.

The Giants did win last week, but that was against the equally inconsistent Dallas Cowboys (A team you will never see me back after November).

The Eagles on the other hand destroyed the Falcons in Phillie, and will be looking for some dominance over their NFC East divisional rivals.

I just think the Eagles defense can get to Eli Manning more then the Giants D can get to McNabb, and this may prove the difference.

Desean Jackson returning after a week off is another bonus for the Eagles.

Plus Sav Rocca is still punting for them (although struggling at times).

Good luck to all.

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WIN - Rocca even had a good game, and although the Giants came at the Eagles, never really in doubt.

Australian PGA (Golf)

Nick O'Hern - 21.00 - each way top 5

Matthew Goggin - 23.00 - each way top 5

With the Australian PGA championship starting at the Hyatt Regency course in Coolum tomorrow, I thought  it was time to place my bets.


Golf can be a hard sport to pick exact winners, although plenty would have been on Adam Scott outright last week.


I have backed Goggin and O'Hern the last few weeks and they have performed fairly well, with Goggin struggling a little, but I tip him to be the big improved this week.


Sportingbet currently has betting for each way Top 5, and those are the odds shown above.


If you are looking to back one of the favourites, I really do expect Adam Scott to continue on with his good form now he has broke through, he is such a confidence player and nothing says confidence like winning your national open.


Good luck to all.

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PLACE - Nick O'hern tied for fifth, giving a nice little return.
LOSS - Goggin got it to 7 under late, but bogied the last, a birdie would have seen him tie for fifth.

Introduction.

Welcome all to Matty's Value Bets.

As part of this blog, I will be giving out free tips on sporting events from around the globe, with a mission of finding the best value sporting tips from around the world.

By "value" I mean odds that seem like they are "over the mark", in that in a head to head contest or a tournament event one athlete or team which I believe has at least a 50/50 chance of winning is over the even money odds.

My betting history is long and detailed, starting with horse racing, and leading into sports betting in a rather big way.

Some of you may know me as "Mattys123" off BigFooty, where I have posted over the past few years, while some of you know me in person.

The particular sports that I know most about are AFL, NRL, English Premier League Football, NBA, Golf, Tennis and therefore most of my tips will be around these sports.

Every tip I place on this blog I will have some of my hard earned money on myself, with a guarantee that I am not just creating random tips that I do not back myself.

Good luck to all, take my advice if you want, and feel free to respond to any tips or comments I make.